Every modern US recession followed a yield curve inversion. Does that mean we should worry every time it happens?
Probably not in isolation. The predictive track record outside the US is much weaker. An inversion might just mean short-term inflation expectations are falling faster than long-term ones — which is a different story from imminent contraction.
Indian data shows inversions in 1989, 2000, 2006, 2019 — each followed by 28–56% market falls before recovery. Pattern exists. Causality is harder to pin.
Worth watching. Not worth panicking about.