Bajaj Housing Finance HNI(b) category: 47x subscription. That is not your allotment probability.
Retail and HNI allotment runs on a lottery by number of applicants, not value. Large ticket applications skew the subscription figure without reducing your individual odds. Your actual chance depends on how many people applied, not how much money came in.
QIB is different - that’s pro-rata. For Bajaj, an institution that applied ₹209 crore in QIB got shares worth ₹1 crore.
Headline subscription numbers are almost always scarier than your actual odds.
Say a company offers 1 lakh lots in retail and 10 lakh people apply. Your chance is 1 in 10, whether the issue was subscribed 5x or 50x. The multiple measures money. The lottery counts people.
One large application adds crores to the demand figure but still counts as one ticket. A ₹2 lakh retail application and a ₹15,000 one have the same odds. That is why regular IPO investors apply from every eligible family account. More tickets, not bigger tickets.
QIB works differently. Institutions get shares pro-rata, so 47x there really does mean one rupee of allotment for every 47 applied. That is how ₹209 crore of QIB money in Bajaj ended up with ₹1 crore of shares. Two different games, reported as one number.
So when a subscription multiple looks scary, check which category it is. For retail and HNI, the only number that matters is how many people applied. That number is almost never in the headline.